This blog is on vacation for the time being.
peac4d.
amos dettonville
"Be thankful we're not getting all the
government we're paying for." ~ Will
Rogers
Friday, May 23, 2008
Find Me at Mostbloggers
I post now at Mostbloggers - so If you want to keep up with all things Amos Dettonville head over to Mostbloggers.
This blog is on vacation for the time being.
peac4d.
amos dettonville
"Be thankful we're not getting all the
government we're paying for." ~ Will
Rogers
This blog is on vacation for the time being.
peac4d.
amos dettonville
"Be thankful we're not getting all the
government we're paying for." ~ Will
Rogers
Friday, January 04, 2008
amos predicts 2008 - Iowa Caucuses (Late)
i wasn't able to get online to do my predictions for iowa in time. it matters little, because my predictions were not about who would win - but rather who to look out for from the results.
democrats:
my prediction for the democrats was that the one's to watch were first place and second place.
the results:
now, this prediction has proven to already be a wash of sorts - because 2nd place is a tie (in reality and IMHO it should be looked at as a tie) which leaves the top 3 still in the hunt.
so, you can see - it's a wash.
i will stand by my conjecture that the battle will be between 1st and 2nd in iowa - and that means all three of them.
if my prediction is correct - it means this: clinton and edwards will be gunning for obama and they'll leave one another (relatively speaking) alone. it makes sense to me - clinton has little worry from edwards. if edwards attacks clinton - now - he will look bad and get off message.
they both have an open - almost obligation - to pound hard at obama.
republicans:
my prediction for the republicans was that the one to watch was the winner of 3rd place in iowa. again, a tie changes things for me.
the results:
i will stand by this as well ... but i consider 3rd place to be a tie as well.
i'll be posting more about the candidates in my "weakness of the candidates" posts coming up (soon). neither will hold romney nor huckabee in a good light. it is not that i oppose them - but that series of posts will be looking at the candidates from a public image perspective - and all of them have weaknesses on that count.
if my "3rd place contender is the one to watch" prediction is true - then thompson and mccain will each have to make some surprising showings in the upcoming state primaries.
time will tell.
peac4d.
amos
democrats:
my prediction for the democrats was that the one's to watch were first place and second place.
the results:
now, this prediction has proven to already be a wash of sorts - because 2nd place is a tie (in reality and IMHO it should be looked at as a tie) which leaves the top 3 still in the hunt.
- obama: 38% - 16 electoral votes
- edwards: 30% - 14 electoral votes
- clinton: 29% - 15 electoral votes
so, you can see - it's a wash.
i will stand by my conjecture that the battle will be between 1st and 2nd in iowa - and that means all three of them.
if my prediction is correct - it means this: clinton and edwards will be gunning for obama and they'll leave one another (relatively speaking) alone. it makes sense to me - clinton has little worry from edwards. if edwards attacks clinton - now - he will look bad and get off message.
they both have an open - almost obligation - to pound hard at obama.
republicans:
my prediction for the republicans was that the one to watch was the winner of 3rd place in iowa. again, a tie changes things for me.
the results:
- huckabee: 34% - 17 electoral votes
- romney: 24% - 12 electoral votes
- thompson: 13% - 3 electoral votes
- mccain: 13% - 3 electoral votes
i will stand by this as well ... but i consider 3rd place to be a tie as well.
i'll be posting more about the candidates in my "weakness of the candidates" posts coming up (soon). neither will hold romney nor huckabee in a good light. it is not that i oppose them - but that series of posts will be looking at the candidates from a public image perspective - and all of them have weaknesses on that count.
if my "3rd place contender is the one to watch" prediction is true - then thompson and mccain will each have to make some surprising showings in the upcoming state primaries.
time will tell.
peac4d.
amos
Thursday, January 03, 2008
amos predicts 2008 - Somalia will fall
last year i started to do predictions - and got too busy with life, a new job, etc., to fulfill my plan of making a month's worth of predictions for the new year.
this year, i am still very busy - but i am going to make it through the month with some predictions (and or thoughts) concerning events in the upcoming year.
once i am done, i will combine them into a single post.
my first prediction (which is a curious one if you try to understand exactly what Somalia is and what Somalia is not) is that Somalia will fall.
one could say, Somalia has never really stood - as it is a very broken country.
however, Mogadishu, Baidoa, and any thing supposed to be a central government (TFG or TFP) will not be the issue. the main cities of somalia will fall into war and losses for the hopes of the West.
that's my first prediction - as roughly cut as it is. Africa, and the Islamists move to take over the prevailing "folk Islam" of many African nations will be more and more exposed during this year - and the "fall of Somalia" will be one of the events which make up the year.
I do not know if the "fall" will be something lasting - but it will be an important move - and an important "mile marker" if my prediction proves to be correct.
'nuff said.
peac4d.
amos
this year, i am still very busy - but i am going to make it through the month with some predictions (and or thoughts) concerning events in the upcoming year.
once i am done, i will combine them into a single post.
my first prediction (which is a curious one if you try to understand exactly what Somalia is and what Somalia is not) is that Somalia will fall.
one could say, Somalia has never really stood - as it is a very broken country.
however, Mogadishu, Baidoa, and any thing supposed to be a central government (TFG or TFP) will not be the issue. the main cities of somalia will fall into war and losses for the hopes of the West.
that's my first prediction - as roughly cut as it is. Africa, and the Islamists move to take over the prevailing "folk Islam" of many African nations will be more and more exposed during this year - and the "fall of Somalia" will be one of the events which make up the year.
I do not know if the "fall" will be something lasting - but it will be an important move - and an important "mile marker" if my prediction proves to be correct.
'nuff said.
peac4d.
amos
Friday, November 09, 2007
Dennis Kucinich Presidential Campaign Update
quite a funny post from the islamic rage boy blog - The Nose on Your Face...
that's all ... sorry to be so quiet over here in this corner...
peac4d.
amos dettonville
"Be thankful we're not getting all the
government we're paying for." ~ Will
Rogers
-------
mostbloggers network : mostbloggers to the rescue since 2005
320
tagia: Dennis Kucinich
Sunday, September 02, 2007
North Korea doesn't blink
from ap:
if anyone doesn't think this was ever about anything but money - then ... they might be right ... but mostly and foremostly and most-mostly it has all been about money and money and money.
whenever kim'lil wants some more - he rattles the sabre.
get it? read the above again and listen real closely:
"... in return for "political and economic compensation ..."
oh, well i suppose next to power might be added money ... kim'lil wants some of that too.
so it's the immoral triffecta (check my poor spelling - see if you can match it): sex, money, and power.
just my opinion ... which is golden on this one. you see - i think this is a victory of sorts ... and it was the way to go - since mr. carter got clinton (basically us) into this mess - it's been hard for anyone in the hood to trust us again ... so we got some rep, we got some promises to de-nuke, we got a win.
but, if the game is as i think - about making the west (and east) pay out some ransom - then we blinked.
peac4d.
amos dettonville
"Be thankful we're not getting all the
government we're paying for." ~ Will
Rogers
-------
mostbloggers network : mostbloggers to the rescue since 2005
"North Korea agreed Sunday to account for and disable its atomic programs by the end of the year, offering its first timeline for a process long sought by nuclear negotiators, the chief U.S. envoy said.
Kim Gye Gwan, head of the North Korean delegation, said separately his country's willingness to cooperate was clear — in return for "political and economic compensation" — but he mentioned no dates. (link)"
if anyone doesn't think this was ever about anything but money - then ... they might be right ... but mostly and foremostly and most-mostly it has all been about money and money and money.
whenever kim'lil wants some more - he rattles the sabre.
get it? read the above again and listen real closely:
"... in return for "political and economic compensation ..."
oh, well i suppose next to power might be added money ... kim'lil wants some of that too.
so it's the immoral triffecta (check my poor spelling - see if you can match it): sex, money, and power.
just my opinion ... which is golden on this one. you see - i think this is a victory of sorts ... and it was the way to go - since mr. carter got clinton (basically us) into this mess - it's been hard for anyone in the hood to trust us again ... so we got some rep, we got some promises to de-nuke, we got a win.
but, if the game is as i think - about making the west (and east) pay out some ransom - then we blinked.
peac4d.
amos dettonville
"Be thankful we're not getting all the
government we're paying for." ~ Will
Rogers
-------
mostbloggers network : mostbloggers to the rescue since 2005
Saturday, June 02, 2007
buckley compares iraq now to vietnam '72 - '75
buckley
While it is true that no historical event exactly replicates another, it is certainly the case that what happened in Vietnam in 1972-1975 bears very closely on the current situation in Iraq.
amos
of course, buckley is correct on this count - maybe the time line goes a bit further back - but one of the unspoken elements of the war in iraq has always been the following of the very successful nixon plan of "the vietnamization of the war." not all lessons learned from vietnam have been only useful to the anti-war camp. certainly, the strategy of, "as they stand up - we stand down" has been a direct lesson from this era in time buckley has pointed out.
people fail to remember that the nixon plan was working brilliantly - the US did not lose vietnam - we left a winning battle.
buckley then goes on to sketch a "tuncated" comparison in four points:
buckley
(1) Hanoi's resolution to conquer the south. The North Vietnamese were held back by the failure of their spring offensive in 1972. ... But Hanoi simply bided its time.
amos
although a stetched comparison - the basic point that our enemy is patient even in defeat - counting on the failure of US resolve is indeed true.
buckley
(2) The withdrawal by the United States, ending in March 1973, of a combative military presence.
amos
this hasn't happened yet in iraq - and i am not certain that buckley is suggesting it has ... he's instead looking ahead to what might come of such a withdrawal.
however, today - in iraq and in the US (and west) - this is the battle line - more important than the ground in iraq.
if we pull out? well, it seems buckley is getting around to it (waking up from many of his earlier articles which seem to have avoided this element AFAIK). though i am not one for the "chinese shopkeeper" appelation being placed all over the iraq war - we came in to break it - and we have no desire to own it - as in imperialism. however, iran (our long time enemy) must be freed. [did amos just take a logical leap or have a pre-senior moment???] no - i my estimation - the axis of evil declaration was intended a specific - if anyone doesn't understand that war in iraq isn't aimed at a larger goal (among which is the hopeful collapse of iran from within) then i feel most have missed the point.
buckley
(3) The growing stability of the South Vietnamese government, which was assumed competent to carry out the terms of the Paris agreements of 1973.
amos
the standing up of the iraqi gov't. again, don't think i am point counter pointing with buckley's set up - his parallels are tangental - and he's offered enough wiggle room to suggest that all of these are "if's" and conjecture. instead, his points are highlighting some very strong ideas as to where we are in this matter IMO.
so far at point 3 we have a winning military, the possibility of withdrawal, and the standing up of the iraqi gov't. that's all, i think, buckley is saying at this point. on to his fourth and last comparison:
buckley
(4) the progressive disunity of the United States government. Here we had the anti-war movement as a continuing force. But that movement attained dominance pari passu with the weakening of President Nixon. As Watergate metastasized from a "second-rate burglary" into grounds for the removal of a president, U.S. support for success in Vietnam wilted.
The parallels in the current situation are plain, beginning with the nature of the United States' participation. What we have right now is a progressively immobilized executive and a dissenting legislature, leading -- inevitably -- to an impotent military.
amos
to sum up - a weakened bush - a weakened or wilted support for success in iraq - just as it happened before with nixon and vietnam. add the vocal anti-war movement in the congress ... u get the picture.
so, basically - i can see where buckely has drawn a shrewd and fairly supportable outline of the matters at hand. they are, "if's" and speculation - but not improbable.
buckely (i think, has a two part conclusion) but i'll offer one of them:
buckley
The question immediately posed is: Do we feel responsibility for what happens in the period ahead?
amos
a fine question from the man i grew up watching on black and white tv when just a boy. it's the one that serious minded people have been asking since the first noisey anti-war voice was heard.
on this very blog - i myself wrote many moons ago - not again. not again to what bush sr. did to the people of iraq who were called to rise up and revolt against saddam (and expect US support - but only got death as a reward). i also said, never again as in siagon.
i am not sure what buckley is calling for in his article ... but i found it worth more than a mere memo - to respond.
there are great questions raised here:
peac4d.
amos dettonville
"Be thankful we're not getting all the
government we're paying for." ~ Will
Rogers
-------
mostbloggers network : mostbloggers to the rescue since 2005
320
While it is true that no historical event exactly replicates another, it is certainly the case that what happened in Vietnam in 1972-1975 bears very closely on the current situation in Iraq.
amos
of course, buckley is correct on this count - maybe the time line goes a bit further back - but one of the unspoken elements of the war in iraq has always been the following of the very successful nixon plan of "the vietnamization of the war." not all lessons learned from vietnam have been only useful to the anti-war camp. certainly, the strategy of, "as they stand up - we stand down" has been a direct lesson from this era in time buckley has pointed out.
people fail to remember that the nixon plan was working brilliantly - the US did not lose vietnam - we left a winning battle.
buckley then goes on to sketch a "tuncated" comparison in four points:
buckley
(1) Hanoi's resolution to conquer the south. The North Vietnamese were held back by the failure of their spring offensive in 1972. ... But Hanoi simply bided its time.
amos
although a stetched comparison - the basic point that our enemy is patient even in defeat - counting on the failure of US resolve is indeed true.
buckley
(2) The withdrawal by the United States, ending in March 1973, of a combative military presence.
amos
this hasn't happened yet in iraq - and i am not certain that buckley is suggesting it has ... he's instead looking ahead to what might come of such a withdrawal.
however, today - in iraq and in the US (and west) - this is the battle line - more important than the ground in iraq.
if we pull out? well, it seems buckley is getting around to it (waking up from many of his earlier articles which seem to have avoided this element AFAIK). though i am not one for the "chinese shopkeeper" appelation being placed all over the iraq war - we came in to break it - and we have no desire to own it - as in imperialism. however, iran (our long time enemy) must be freed. [did amos just take a logical leap or have a pre-senior moment???] no - i my estimation - the axis of evil declaration was intended a specific - if anyone doesn't understand that war in iraq isn't aimed at a larger goal (among which is the hopeful collapse of iran from within) then i feel most have missed the point.
buckley
(3) The growing stability of the South Vietnamese government, which was assumed competent to carry out the terms of the Paris agreements of 1973.
amos
the standing up of the iraqi gov't. again, don't think i am point counter pointing with buckley's set up - his parallels are tangental - and he's offered enough wiggle room to suggest that all of these are "if's" and conjecture. instead, his points are highlighting some very strong ideas as to where we are in this matter IMO.
so far at point 3 we have a winning military, the possibility of withdrawal, and the standing up of the iraqi gov't. that's all, i think, buckley is saying at this point. on to his fourth and last comparison:
buckley
(4) the progressive disunity of the United States government. Here we had the anti-war movement as a continuing force. But that movement attained dominance pari passu with the weakening of President Nixon. As Watergate metastasized from a "second-rate burglary" into grounds for the removal of a president, U.S. support for success in Vietnam wilted.
The parallels in the current situation are plain, beginning with the nature of the United States' participation. What we have right now is a progressively immobilized executive and a dissenting legislature, leading -- inevitably -- to an impotent military.
amos
to sum up - a weakened bush - a weakened or wilted support for success in iraq - just as it happened before with nixon and vietnam. add the vocal anti-war movement in the congress ... u get the picture.
so, basically - i can see where buckely has drawn a shrewd and fairly supportable outline of the matters at hand. they are, "if's" and speculation - but not improbable.
buckely (i think, has a two part conclusion) but i'll offer one of them:
buckley
The question immediately posed is: Do we feel responsibility for what happens in the period ahead?
amos
a fine question from the man i grew up watching on black and white tv when just a boy. it's the one that serious minded people have been asking since the first noisey anti-war voice was heard.
on this very blog - i myself wrote many moons ago - not again. not again to what bush sr. did to the people of iraq who were called to rise up and revolt against saddam (and expect US support - but only got death as a reward). i also said, never again as in siagon.
i am not sure what buckley is calling for in his article ... but i found it worth more than a mere memo - to respond.
there are great questions raised here:
- do we foolishly allow our enemies to bide their time?
- can we really afford to withdraw from iraq?
- how do we best support the young iraqi govenment for the long term?
- will a lame duck and the lame hippy congress be allowed to errode support for success?
- do we
feelbear responsibility for what happens in the period ahead?
peac4d.
amos dettonville
"Be thankful we're not getting all the
government we're paying for." ~ Will
Rogers
-------
mostbloggers network : mostbloggers to the rescue since 2005
320
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Libby Lied Justice Died
from washington post dawt com:
you gotta love these artilces where you find so much verbage carefully crafted to show Libby's guilt - and then the amazing gloss that is put over the entire objection to the whole matter in the first place.
in case you missed the gloss - let me quote:
the actually gloss is even smaller - notice:
even smaller than that:
in that one word is lost all of the justice which is not being offered towards Libby who was caught in what we loving know these days as "a perjury trap."
the chilling effect on justice ... no one is going to freely go before any grand jury nor before any special counsel and offer up anything of substance ever again.
fitzgerald has been said to be an upright and honest man ... and hopefully that is true. however, this article makes it sound as if any misspeak with the appearance of leading investigators down a wrong path now equals "obstruction."
lame.
peac4d.
amos dettonville
"Be thankful we're not getting all the
government we're paying for." ~ Will
Rogers
-------
mostbloggers network : mostbloggers to the rescue since 2005
320
Fitzgerald said the punishment would match the gravity of the offense and the intensity of his investigation into what he considered a serious violation of national security laws. He argued that Libby deserved an enhanced sentence because he "substantially interfered" with the special counsel's probe, which reached into Cheney's office in an effort to determine who might have orchestrated the leak.
...
Defense lawyers said in court filings yesterday that no evidence was offered that Libby illegally leaked Plame's identity to reporters and then lied to cover up that leak. They also questioned the "unique" investigation that caught Libby, noting that no one was charged with knowingly leaking classified information, the crime the FBI set out to investigate in 2003.
you gotta love these artilces where you find so much verbage carefully crafted to show Libby's guilt - and then the amazing gloss that is put over the entire objection to the whole matter in the first place.
in case you missed the gloss - let me quote:
Defense lawyers ... also questioned the "unique" investigation that caught Libby, noting that no one was charged with knowingly leaking classified information, the crime the FBI set out to investigate in 2003.
the actually gloss is even smaller - notice:
"unique" investigation
even smaller than that:
"unique"
in that one word is lost all of the justice which is not being offered towards Libby who was caught in what we loving know these days as "a perjury trap."
the chilling effect on justice ... no one is going to freely go before any grand jury nor before any special counsel and offer up anything of substance ever again.
fitzgerald has been said to be an upright and honest man ... and hopefully that is true. however, this article makes it sound as if any misspeak with the appearance of leading investigators down a wrong path now equals "obstruction."
lame.
peac4d.
amos dettonville
"Be thankful we're not getting all the
government we're paying for." ~ Will
Rogers
-------
mostbloggers network : mostbloggers to the rescue since 2005
320
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